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[Gopher Gary]

Back on topic. Trackers can be frustrating to discuss when not accompanied by any level of analysis, along with reporting delays and public discussion of inaccurate and/or insufficient testing, and/or reporting. Enough time has passed to allow a different approach to viewing mortality via excess mortality. For those who might find it of interest, https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/excess-mortality-p-scores?year=earliest&time=2020-01-05..2020-08-16 The link is very user friendly, allowing to add and remove countries within the data set, setting date ranges, while accommodating for chart, map, and table views.

What the heck happened in the UK in January? 

[Walkie]

Back on topic. Trackers can be frustrating to discuss when not accompanied by any level of analysis, along with reporting delays and public discussion of inaccurate and/or insufficient testing, and/or reporting. Enough time has passed to allow a different approach to viewing mortality via excess mortality. For those who might find it of interest, https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/excess-mortality-p-scores?year=earliest&time=2020-01-05..2020-08-16 The link is very user friendly, allowing to add and remove countries within the data set, setting date ranges, while accommodating for chart, map, and table views.

Interesting graphs , jack  I very much agree that excess mortality is the most reliable measure, given differences in testing capability, etc.

I reckon that population density has been the major determinant, nvm political response.   But what about Spain, you say? so did I, but then I found this:

https://theconversation.com/think-your-country-is-crowded-these-maps-reveal-the-truth-about-population-density-across-europe-90345

What the heck happened in the UK in January? 

I've lost count of the number of friends, family  and neighbours here who've told me that they believe they were  infected with Covid-19 back in January already. Looks like they were right, doesn't it?  You couldn't get tested for love nor money, back then, so it's anybody's guess.  That said, it's weird that the mortality  dipped again , isn't it? So maybe it was some similar bug that burned itself out? Then again, it would not be surprising if Covid-19  made it over here really early. We have loads of Chinese students and Chinese investors jetting back and forth 

[odeon]

Didn't they find evidence of Covid-19 in the wild earlier than thought in several places?

[FourAceDeal]

Back on topic. Trackers can be frustrating to discuss when not accompanied by any level of analysis, along with reporting delays and public discussion of inaccurate and/or insufficient testing, and/or reporting. Enough time has passed to allow a different approach to viewing mortality via excess mortality. For those who might find it of interest, https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/excess-mortality-p-scores?year=earliest&time=2020-01-05..2020-08-16 The link is very user friendly, allowing to add and remove countries within the data set, setting date ranges, while accommodating for chart, map, and table views.

What the heck happened in the UK in January? 

January is when we have the annual purge in the UK.  We don't advertise it much.

[Jack]

Interesting graphs , jack 

They really are. Also a little comforting. When people talk of covid deaths, it's generally in raw numbers or cumulative stats, which are large quantities that simply don't stop growing, thus giving no one a perspective of what's happening right now. While several countries only have records through June, it does appear at this time countries generally are no longer experiencing alarming amounts of excess deaths. It was also interesting to see the impact in the US after reopening. It's a shame the data set isn't larger to include more countries, but single sources for excess mortality aren't a common thing. That could change since now circumstances make it worth looking. If a better one comes along later, will try to think to post it.

[FourAceDeal]

Interesting graphs , jack 

They really are. Also a little comforting. When people talk of covid deaths, it's generally in raw numbers or cumulative stats, which are large quantities that simply don't stop growing, thus giving no one a perspective of what's happening right now. While several countries only have records through June, it does appear at this time countries generally are no longer experiencing alarming amounts of excess deaths. It was also interesting to see the impact in the US after reopening. It's a shame the data set isn't larger to include more countries, but single sources for excess mortality aren't a common thing. That could change since now circumstances make it worth looking. If a better one comes along later, will try to think to post it.

Excess death statistics are usually compiled just over a year in the past to allow for the next years seasonal figures to be factored in.  Even having these figures for July - two months ago - is a bit of a fudge.  The numbers will no doubt be revised as time goes on.

We won't be able to see truly accurate statistics until this shit is over.

[Jack]

Interesting graphs , jack 

They really are. Also a little comforting. When people talk of covid deaths, it's generally in raw numbers or cumulative stats, which are large quantities that simply don't stop growing, thus giving no one a perspective of what's happening right now. While several countries only have records through June, it does appear at this time countries generally are no longer experiencing alarming amounts of excess deaths. It was also interesting to see the impact in the US after reopening. It's a shame the data set isn't larger to include more countries, but single sources for excess mortality aren't a common thing. That could change since now circumstances make it worth looking. If a better one comes along later, will try to think to post it.

Excess death statistics are usually compiled just over a year in the past to allow for the next years seasonal figures to be factored in.  Even having these figures for July - two months ago - is a bit of a fudge.  The numbers will no doubt be revised as time goes on.

We won't be able to see truly accurate statistics until this shit is over.

Absolutely. Wouldn't expect final 2000 numbers until next year. Though don't really expect large changes from these numbers.

[Gopher Gary]

What the heck happened in the UK in January? 

I've lost count of the number of friends, family  and neighbours here who've told me that they believe they were  infected with Covid-19 back in January already. Looks like they were right, doesn't it?  You couldn't get tested for love nor money, back then, so it's anybody's guess.  That said, it's weird that the mortality  dipped again , isn't it? So maybe it was some similar bug that burned itself out? Then again, it would not be surprising if Covid-19  made it over here really early. We have loads of Chinese students and Chinese investors jetting back and forth 

It would be interesting to see that graph extended back to at least the beginning of Fall of 2019. Everyone I heard here who says they think they already had the corona, says they had it around Thanksgiving in November. 

[Gopher Gary]

Back on topic. Trackers can be frustrating to discuss when not accompanied by any level of analysis, along with reporting delays and public discussion of inaccurate and/or insufficient testing, and/or reporting. Enough time has passed to allow a different approach to viewing mortality via excess mortality. For those who might find it of interest, https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/excess-mortality-p-scores?year=earliest&time=2020-01-05..2020-08-16 The link is very user friendly, allowing to add and remove countries within the data set, setting date ranges, while accommodating for chart, map, and table views.

What the heck happened in the UK in January? 

January is when we have the annual purge in the UK.  We don't advertise it much.

A 34% spike in mortality is pretty alarming so I sort of expected it to be public knowledge explainable by people who live there, so yeah, a culling is kind of what it looks like.

[Dirty Big Yoke]

I wouldn't be surprised the actions (or lack of) of the UK government are to "cull" undesirables, especially since a quite a few tory MPs are open supporters of eugenics.

They blatantly do it with social welfare, especially with the disabled.

[Jack]

I wouldn't be surprised the actions (or lack of) of the UK government are to "cull" undesirables, especially since a quite a few tory MPs are open supporters of eugenics.

They blatantly do it with social welfare, especially with the disabled.

Don't think there's anything nefarious afoot, but also don't really expect much delving into the possibility 2020 is a second wave.

[Walkie]

Interesting graphs , jack 

They really are. Also a little comforting. When people talk of covid deaths, it's generally in raw numbers or cumulative stats, which are large quantities that simply don't stop growing, thus giving no one a perspective of what's happening right now. While several countries only have records through June, it does appear at this time countries generally are no longer experiencing alarming amounts of excess deaths. It was also interesting to see the impact in the US after reopening. It's a shame the data set isn't larger to include more countries, but single sources for excess mortality aren't a common thing. That could change since now circumstances make it worth looking. If a better one comes along later, will try to think to post it.

Excess death statistics are usually compiled just over a year in the past to allow for the next years seasonal figures to be factored in.  Even having these figures for July - two months ago - is a bit of a fudge.  The numbers will no doubt be revised as time goes on.

We won't be able to see truly accurate statistics until this shit is over.

 

ummm....but suppsing the pandemic lasts through nxct year, and especially if the virus mutates and we get an even more lethal second wave,  then this years' excess death figures will be skewed towards the new normal, won't they? and look better than they actually are. Ihat's gonna happen to some extent anyway. I mean  this years 'results will skew themselves,  when used to recalculate the mean, so we'll see a totally meaningless retrospective flattening out of the graph.

More accurate, you say? I don't get it.  Inasmuch as new data comes in that isn't availabe right now, then it will be more accurate. But inasmuch as we want to compare post-Covid-19 deaths with pre-covid normal (what else?) then the graphs  won't be be more accurate, but rather misleading.

[Jack]

It makes sense someone doing a multi-year covid study would purposely avoid skewing the baseline in such a way.

[Walkie]

It makes sense someone doing a multi-year covid study would purposely avoid skewing the baseline in such a way.

Yeah, but i long ago lost all faith in human beings being sensible. If they do it exactly as described by 4AD, then  that wont be sensible, will it?

[Jack]

Not sure. Have been cooped up too long to even have any confidence in my own sensibilities.