« previous next »
Pages: [1] 2   Go Down

Author Topic: FiveThirtyEight  (Read 712 times)

0 Members and 2 Guests are viewing this topic.

Offline MLA

  • Elitest Aspie of the Aspie Elite
  • Modulator
  • Dedicated Postwhore
  • *****
  • Posts: 2844
  • Karma: 192
  • Gender: Male
  • The internet isn't a library, it's a stage.
FiveThirtyEight
« on: June 29, 2016, 01:33:58 PM »
Nate Silver finally launched his 2016 election forecast.  Now I have something to look at to assuage my darkest fears.

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/

Logged

Offline odeon

  • Witchlet of the Aspie Elite
  • Webmaster
  • Postwhore Beyond Repair
  • *****
  • Posts: 108879
  • Karma: 4482
  • Gender: Male
  • Replacement Despot
Re: FiveThirtyEight
« Reply #1 on: June 29, 2016, 03:48:14 PM »
Hoping for the best but fearing for the worst. Brexit taught me that there are no boundaries to people's stupidity.
Logged
"Only two things are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former."

- Albert Einstein

Offline Al Swearegen

  • Pussycat of the Aspie Elite
  • Elder
  • Almighty Postwhore
  • *****
  • Posts: 18721
  • Karma: 2240
  • Always front on and in your face
Re: FiveThirtyEight
« Reply #2 on: June 29, 2016, 03:49:11 PM »
I wonder how much this may improve if she gets indicted.
No that I think she will. I am not being silly, but rather making the point that any other democratic candidate will probably be more likable. Joe Biden, Bernie or Warren.
Logged
I2 today is not i2 of yesteryear. It is a knitting circle. Those that participate be they nice or asshats know their place and the price to be there. Odeon is the overlord

.Benevolent if you toe the line.

Think it is I2 of old? Even Odeon is not so delusional as to think otherwise. He may on occasionally pretend otherwise but his base is that knitting circle.

Censoring/banning/restricting/moderating myself, Calanadale & Scrapheap were all not his finest moments.

How to apologise to Scrap

Offline odeon

  • Witchlet of the Aspie Elite
  • Webmaster
  • Postwhore Beyond Repair
  • *****
  • Posts: 108879
  • Karma: 4482
  • Gender: Male
  • Replacement Despot
Re: FiveThirtyEight
« Reply #3 on: June 29, 2016, 04:52:06 PM »
Or Hillary. She's going to be a far better choice than Trump ever could.
Logged
"Only two things are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former."

- Albert Einstein

Offline Al Swearegen

  • Pussycat of the Aspie Elite
  • Elder
  • Almighty Postwhore
  • *****
  • Posts: 18721
  • Karma: 2240
  • Always front on and in your face
Re: FiveThirtyEight
« Reply #4 on: June 29, 2016, 05:00:47 PM »
Quote from: odeon on June 29, 2016, 04:52:06 PM
Or Hillary. She's going to be a far better choice than Trump ever could.

Not sure what you are responding to. My question was in how other candidates would go.
If Donald Trump is 20% and Hillary Clinton is 80% and she get indicted (IF she got indicted), her candidacy would be replaced with a different Democratic Leader.

I am wondering specifically how well THEY will poll against Trump?

It would shake things up BUT at the same time I think Bernie would poll much better against trump than Hillary is. Bernie may get it down to single digits.

If my question was who do I like better, the career criminal or the blowhard egoist? I would have gone Trump. That is my opinion. She needs to be in jail and once so I would like to see who would fill her shoes. Whoever they choose will no doubt fill them more than adequately. THAT to me would be interesting.
Logged
I2 today is not i2 of yesteryear. It is a knitting circle. Those that participate be they nice or asshats know their place and the price to be there. Odeon is the overlord

.Benevolent if you toe the line.

Think it is I2 of old? Even Odeon is not so delusional as to think otherwise. He may on occasionally pretend otherwise but his base is that knitting circle.

Censoring/banning/restricting/moderating myself, Calanadale & Scrapheap were all not his finest moments.

How to apologise to Scrap

Offline odeon

  • Witchlet of the Aspie Elite
  • Webmaster
  • Postwhore Beyond Repair
  • *****
  • Posts: 108879
  • Karma: 4482
  • Gender: Male
  • Replacement Despot
Re: FiveThirtyEight
« Reply #5 on: June 29, 2016, 05:04:23 PM »
I know you would. I'm just glad that our opinions do not matter in this respect.
Logged
"Only two things are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former."

- Albert Einstein

Offline Al Swearegen

  • Pussycat of the Aspie Elite
  • Elder
  • Almighty Postwhore
  • *****
  • Posts: 18721
  • Karma: 2240
  • Always front on and in your face
Re: FiveThirtyEight
« Reply #6 on: June 29, 2016, 05:14:45 PM »
Quote from: odeon on June 29, 2016, 05:04:23 PM
I know you would. I'm just glad that our opinions do not matter in this respect.

Nope they don't. I would love to see Hillary Clinton crestfallen. I do not much care if another Democrat gets in. I do think that a Republican anti-establishment character with a new focus could shake things up, and likely in a good way. I also see in Biden a popular politician that has been around forever, and in a VP position, that I think in the crunch and at short notice could step up. Elizabeth Warren could swoop in and become the first woman President.
Maybe crazy old Grandpa Sanders would defy expectation and get in, in fact for as much as I disagree with his Socialist politics he kind of deserves it.
Hillary going to jail would be interesting and entertaining seeing how it all panned out. I would not really care that much as to how it did pan out, as much as to just enjoy the sheer spectacle of it all.

#HillaryforPrison2016
Logged
I2 today is not i2 of yesteryear. It is a knitting circle. Those that participate be they nice or asshats know their place and the price to be there. Odeon is the overlord

.Benevolent if you toe the line.

Think it is I2 of old? Even Odeon is not so delusional as to think otherwise. He may on occasionally pretend otherwise but his base is that knitting circle.

Censoring/banning/restricting/moderating myself, Calanadale & Scrapheap were all not his finest moments.

How to apologise to Scrap

Offline odeon

  • Witchlet of the Aspie Elite
  • Webmaster
  • Postwhore Beyond Repair
  • *****
  • Posts: 108879
  • Karma: 4482
  • Gender: Male
  • Replacement Despot
Re: FiveThirtyEight
« Reply #7 on: June 29, 2016, 05:21:25 PM »
Hillary will probably win. All things considered, it's probably the best thing that can happen.
Logged
"Only two things are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former."

- Albert Einstein

Offline Al Swearegen

  • Pussycat of the Aspie Elite
  • Elder
  • Almighty Postwhore
  • *****
  • Posts: 18721
  • Karma: 2240
  • Always front on and in your face
Re: FiveThirtyEight
« Reply #8 on: June 29, 2016, 06:04:28 PM »
Quote from: odeon on June 29, 2016, 05:21:25 PM
Hillary will probably win. All things considered, it's probably the best thing that can happen.

Fearful of exactly what that may look like. Libya duplicated over and over, foreign interests given favour through donations to her "charity fund" (that 90% of donations are "administrative"), upping immigration numbers without better checks and balances, putting herself over country at every turn....a woeful disaster.
Sanders is a crazy socialist with crazy ideas but at least he is trustworthy and honest.
Other Democrats? I have no idea, they may actually bring something good to the table.
Because Trump is the other option.
Logged
I2 today is not i2 of yesteryear. It is a knitting circle. Those that participate be they nice or asshats know their place and the price to be there. Odeon is the overlord

.Benevolent if you toe the line.

Think it is I2 of old? Even Odeon is not so delusional as to think otherwise. He may on occasionally pretend otherwise but his base is that knitting circle.

Censoring/banning/restricting/moderating myself, Calanadale & Scrapheap were all not his finest moments.

How to apologise to Scrap

Offline MLA

  • Elitest Aspie of the Aspie Elite
  • Modulator
  • Dedicated Postwhore
  • *****
  • Posts: 2844
  • Karma: 192
  • Gender: Male
  • The internet isn't a library, it's a stage.
Re: FiveThirtyEight
« Reply #9 on: June 30, 2016, 09:48:56 AM »
Quote from: Al Swearengen on June 29, 2016, 05:00:47 PM
Quote from: odeon on June 29, 2016, 04:52:06 PM
Or Hillary. She's going to be a far better choice than Trump ever could.

Not sure what you are responding to. My question was in how other candidates would go.
If Donald Trump is 20% and Hillary Clinton is 80% and she get indicted (IF she got indicted), her candidacy would be replaced with a different Democratic Leader.

How would that happen?
Logged

Offline Icequeen

  • News Box Slave
  • Insane Postwhore
  • *****
  • Posts: 12027
  • Karma: 2030
  • Gender: Female
  • I peopled today.
Re: FiveThirtyEight
« Reply #10 on: June 30, 2016, 10:17:44 AM »
We're all doomed no matter what happens.

Just remember I am the "original" ice queen.

Now all hail my disciple.

Logged

Offline "couldbecousin"

  • Invincible Heisenweeble of the Aspie Elite
  • Elder
  • Postwhore Beyond Teh Stupid
  • *****
  • Posts: 53577
  • Karma: 2716
  • Gender: Female
  • You're goddamn right.
Re: FiveThirtyEight
« Reply #11 on: June 30, 2016, 10:23:13 AM »
Quote from: Icequeen on June 30, 2016, 10:17:44 AM
We're all doomed no matter what happens.

Just remember I am the "original" ice queen.

Now all hail my disciple.



  You'd have my vote!  You'd get shit done!  :2thumbsup:
Logged
"I'm finding a lot of things funny lately, but I don't think they are."
--- Ripley, Alien Resurrection


"We are grateful for the time we have been given."
--- Edward Walker, The Village

People forget.
--- The Who, "Eminence Front"

Offline Yuri Bezmenov

  • Drunk-assed squadron leader
  • Obsessive Postwhore
  • *****
  • Posts: 6663
  • Karma: 0
  • Communist propaganda is demoralizing the West.
Re: FiveThirtyEight
« Reply #12 on: June 30, 2016, 01:23:38 PM »
Quote from: Al Swearengen on June 29, 2016, 06:04:28 PM
Quote from: odeon on June 29, 2016, 05:21:25 PM
Hillary will probably win. All things considered, it's probably the best thing that can happen.

Fearful of exactly what that may look like. Libya duplicated over and over, foreign interests given favour through donations to her "charity fund" (that 90% of donations are "administrative"), upping immigration numbers without better checks and balances, putting herself over country at every turn....a woeful disaster.
Sanders is a crazy socialist with crazy ideas but at least he is trustworthy and honest.
Other Democrats? I have no idea, they may actually bring something good to the table.
Because Trump is the other option.

Not to mention the likelihood of agenda driven, inexperienced supreme court justices being appointed, like Elena Kagan.  :puke:
Logged

Offline Al Swearegen

  • Pussycat of the Aspie Elite
  • Elder
  • Almighty Postwhore
  • *****
  • Posts: 18721
  • Karma: 2240
  • Always front on and in your face
Re: FiveThirtyEight
« Reply #13 on: June 30, 2016, 03:48:09 PM »
Quote from: Hubert, Esq. on June 30, 2016, 09:48:56 AM
Quote from: Al Swearengen on June 29, 2016, 05:00:47 PM
Quote from: odeon on June 29, 2016, 04:52:06 PM
Or Hillary. She's going to be a far better choice than Trump ever could.

Not sure what you are responding to. My question was in how other candidates would go.
If Donald Trump is 20% and Hillary Clinton is 80% and she get indicted (IF she got indicted), her candidacy would be replaced with a different Democratic Leader.

How would that happen?

Before the convention would be easiest
They either agree on Bernie as last man standing or unplugged her votes and vest them in a new candidate they agree on.

After that, it gets more messy.

Personally I like messy. I know that there will be a President.  I know they will navigate this process.  It's just a matter of how interesting it gets and if Hillary is it.

Logged
I2 today is not i2 of yesteryear. It is a knitting circle. Those that participate be they nice or asshats know their place and the price to be there. Odeon is the overlord

.Benevolent if you toe the line.

Think it is I2 of old? Even Odeon is not so delusional as to think otherwise. He may on occasionally pretend otherwise but his base is that knitting circle.

Censoring/banning/restricting/moderating myself, Calanadale & Scrapheap were all not his finest moments.

How to apologise to Scrap

Offline odeon

  • Witchlet of the Aspie Elite
  • Webmaster
  • Postwhore Beyond Repair
  • *****
  • Posts: 108879
  • Karma: 4482
  • Gender: Male
  • Replacement Despot
Re: FiveThirtyEight
« Reply #14 on: June 30, 2016, 03:52:49 PM »
Anyone is better than Trump. Well, almost.
Logged
"Only two things are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former."

- Albert Einstein
Pages: [1] 2   Go Up
« previous next »