Brexit omelette with ham and cheese.

[odeon]

The mortality rate from a typical flu is around 0.1%. For the Spanish Flu in 1918/19 estimates are as high as 20% (it was probably less). For the Coronavirus the mortality rate is between about 1% and 4%.

Less than 1%, actually, according to scientists. The thinking is that most cases are very mild and don't get reported.

[Minister Of Silly Walks]

The mortality rate from a typical flu is around 0.1%. For the Spanish Flu in 1918/19 estimates are as high as 20% (it was probably less). For the Coronavirus the mortality rate is between about 1% and 4%.

Less than 1%, actually, according to scientists. The thinking is that most cases are very mild and don't get reported.

That is also the claim that Trump made, that the real mortality rate was less than 1%, and he copped a lot of criticism for it. Even though it is probably a fairly good guesstimate.

There is a range of views, some people are panicking obviously. A lot of people seem convinced that it is nothing to be concerned about and that the precautions being suggested by the WHO, quarantines, etc. are entirely unnecessary. I tend to think that the truth is somewhere in between.

China did extremely well to shut down the cities at the epicenter of the outbreak, blocking tunnels with rubble to prevent people getting out and spreading the virus. Effectively shutting down almost the entire economy in those cities. What concerns me is not the mortality rate (obviously much lower than SARS, Ebola and so on) but how contagious this one appears to be. How quickly it can spread to a large portion of the population. And the economic consequences of people not going out and spending money, of schools and buildings being "shut down", of international travel being seriously curtailed. And hospitals (which are often inadequate to cope with normal patient loads even in wealthy countries) and medical personnel being overwhelmed by the sheer volume of cases.

[Minister Of Silly Walks]

http://www.theshovel.com.au/2020/02/04/trump-calls-for-us-to-leave-eu-too/

The insanity is spreading. Now Trump is planning to leave the EU.

[odeon]

The mortality rate from a typical flu is around 0.1%. For the Spanish Flu in 1918/19 estimates are as high as 20% (it was probably less). For the Coronavirus the mortality rate is between about 1% and 4%.

Less than 1%, actually, according to scientists. The thinking is that most cases are very mild and don't get reported.

That is also the claim that Trump made, that the real mortality rate was less than 1%, and he copped a lot of criticism for it. Even though it is probably a fairly good guesstimate.

There is a range of views, some people are panicking obviously. A lot of people seem convinced that it is nothing to be concerned about and that the precautions being suggested by the WHO, quarantines, etc. are entirely unnecessary. I tend to think that the truth is somewhere in between.

China did extremely well to shut down the cities at the epicenter of the outbreak, blocking tunnels with rubble to prevent people getting out and spreading the virus. Effectively shutting down almost the entire economy in those cities. What concerns me is not the mortality rate (obviously much lower than SARS, Ebola and so on) but how contagious this one appears to be. How quickly it can spread to a large portion of the population. And the economic consequences of people not going out and spending money, of schools and buildings being "shut down", of international travel being seriously curtailed. And hospitals (which are often inadequate to cope with normal patient loads even in wealthy countries) and medical personnel being overwhelmed by the sheer volume of cases.

Agreed. The contagiousness is what worries me, too.

The less than 1% mortality rate was what an epidemiologist suggested in the news the other day.

[odeon]

http://www.theshovel.com.au/2020/02/04/trump-calls-for-us-to-leave-eu-too/

The insanity is spreading. Now Trump is planning to leave the EU.

Nothing surprises me when it comes to Trump. The context made me suspicious, though.

[Minister Of Silly Walks]

The less than 1% mortality is based on the health workers who were obviously monitored for the virus. Despite the hazmat suits and masks and precautions about 1700 health workers caught the virus and mortality was under 1%. So for healthy adults of working age, that's probably a good guide. Similar in South Korea where the virus has spread scarily fast from maybe one person, and authorities have been very open about the stats.

Where that gets a bit wobbly is that mortality among older people and already unwell people is likely to be much higher than 1%, dragging the average up. Also if medical supplies run out, hospital beds and equipment are overwhelmed, or in countries like Iran as we've already seen, it may also be much higher than 1%.

Overall it's likely to be like a very bad flu season, the biggest and scariest impact will be to the economy.

[Jack]

The mortality rate from a typical flu is around 0.1%. For the Spanish Flu in 1918/19 estimates are as high as 20% (it was probably less). For the Coronavirus the mortality rate is between about 1% and 4%.

Assuming that you come in at around 2%, and about the same number of people catch it as would catch the flu in a typical flu season, you are still talking about a million deaths. Mostly older people and people with compromised health already. But that's still a lot of dead people.

I think the level of concern shown by the WHO is appropriate and the actions taken in China were heavy-handed but necessary.

The impact on the world economy will potentially be a lot greater than the deaths.

My main concern is that the supermarkets are completely out of toilet paper already.

Fortunately, the gopher has enough toilet paper to save us all.

[Jack]

Meh. I care because WolFish was immunocompromised and people in situations like his have reason to fear. I'm not afraid for myself.

Husband is also immunodeficient. Though there are some things he's not willing to do or forfeit for the sake of fear, so the precautions he already takes are what he should be doing, or is willing to do.

['andersom']

The mortality rate from a typical flu is around 0.1%. For the Spanish Flu in 1918/19 estimates are as high as 20% (it was probably less). For the Coronavirus the mortality rate is between about 1% and 4%.

Less than 1%, actually, according to scientists. The thinking is that most cases are very mild and don't get reported.

With "regular" flu the mild cases don't get reported either.

['andersom']

 Would worry if it would hit my mum or my youngest.
But no other behaviour than in flu season here. Washing of hands and sneezing and coughing in my elbow. Was my habit already.

That toilet paper crisis in Australia amazes and amuses me. Did notice a "one per customer only" sign at stack of TP on offer for the first time in my life. Apparently they thing the rush is a world wide thing.
Local supermarket had stocked up on rub on hand sanitizer. I don't see them selling much. Wouldn't help. It's a virus, not bacteria.

[odeon]

The less than 1% mortality is based on the health workers who were obviously monitored for the virus. Despite the hazmat suits and masks and precautions about 1700 health workers caught the virus and mortality was under 1%. So for healthy adults of working age, that's probably a good guide. Similar in South Korea where the virus has spread scarily fast from maybe one person, and authorities have been very open about the stats.

Where that gets a bit wobbly is that mortality among older people and already unwell people is likely to be much higher than 1%, dragging the average up. Also if medical supplies run out, hospital beds and equipment are overwhelmed, or in countries like Iran as we've already seen, it may also be much higher than 1%.

Overall it's likely to be like a very bad flu season, the biggest and scariest impact will be to the economy.

Mortality rates in the so-called risk groups will be a lot higher, of course. It's interesting to note that in the media, different experts will say very different things. Just read an opinion piece by an expert who swears by the three point something rate and calls on the government to take drastic measures to contain this thing, and then stumbled on another expert stating that most cases are probably very mild and thus remain unnoticed.

The scariest impact will certainly be to the economy.

[odeon]

Local supermarket had stocked up on rub on hand sanitizer. I don't see them selling much. Wouldn't help. It's a virus, not bacteria.

It's not useless but carefully washing your hands is a lot better.

[Minister Of Silly Walks]

What are the advantages of open borders? Particularly for a working class Brit, for example?

Eligible for work all over Europe, for one. Choose to settle anywhere in the EU. Holidays anywhere. Etc.

For a small island with 70 million people I'd say it's a no-brainer, but I guess they disagreed. Oh well. They've got blue passports now, at least.

From what I could tell, those arrangements in the EU tended to push down wages and conditions and opportunities for British workers in Britain, and didn't create a lot of overseas opportunities. If you were a shelf packer in Tesco, for example, the prospect of getting a shelf-packing job in Poland or Paris probably wasn't as big of a plus as it would be for some professionals.

I'm not British and I haven't spent much time there over the past 20 years, so my opinion is probably well out-of-date. And I don't know if I would be pro-brexit or anti-brexit today if I had stayed there. But I know how the ready availability of cheap and exploitable foreign workers negatively impact on opportunities and wages and conditions in Australia (despite all the neoliberal bullshit we hear to the contrary), and if it is anything like that in the UK then I'd be strongly pro-Brexit.

[odeon]

The low-wage EU citizens in the UK handled jobs the Brits wouldn't. Now that there is a shortage of them, Prince Charles has been encouraging furloughed Brits to do their share.

[Minister Of Silly Walks]

The low-wage EU citizens in the UK handled jobs the Brits wouldn't. Now that there is a shortage of them, Prince Charles has been encouraging furloughed Brits to do their share.

I always figured that was bollocks, the idea that the working class is too lazy or too proud to do certain jobs. Such claims by employers and right wing politicians need to be taken with a huge pinch of salt. Look at the agenda they are trying to push, and why.

People make the same sort of claims here in Australia. The reality is that Australians don't get hired for those jobs because they expect to be paid a proper wage and have reasonable conditions. Whereas foreign workers can be underpaid, pushed to do unpaid overtime, and they don't have the option to complain. Of course employers won't say "I don't want to hire Aussies because I'd have to pay them properly, I want to hire immigrants so I can exploit them and underpay them". So employers claim that Aussies don't want to do the jobs, and it's a claim that is difficult to prove or disprove.

Even in IT the same thing happens, we have huge numbers of IT workers unemployed in Australia or driving taxis or working as Uber drivers. The last company I worked for, they would put a new job ad up and within 24 hours they'd have 200 applications. But employers still claim that there is a skill shortage and they need to hire foreigners or bring in workers on temporary visas from the development centre in Bangalore (or some other foreign city). The skill shortage claims are pure bullshit. Most similar claims by employers in every industry are also bullshit.

The reason you never see an Aussie working in a Thai or Chinese restaurant in Sydney, or cleaning offices at night time, is because there are plenty of illegal immigrants and "students" who will do the job for $10 an hour or less (minimum wage is about $24 an hour for a casual worker). Of course you can pay an Aussie $10 an hour, but 6 months later he or she can take you to court and you'll have to provide a pile of backpay at the minimum wage and you will be up for costs and fines as well.