Will There Be A War?

[ProfessorFarnsworth]

Welcome back.

Thanks.

What troubles me is that the world is already losing interest. The headlines are now about a missing plane and the usual Justin Bieber drivel.

I don't think it's because they've lost interest, it's more likely the media is intentionally toning it down a bit and suppressing it because it was reaching tinderbox conditions. Had they kept up with the rhetoric full speed, things could have exploded overnight.

On an unrelated note, I just love how the new Ukrainian government is threatening to rebuild its nuclear weapons stockpile. Like that's not totally going to have Russia invade their entire land in a "muh WMDs" scenario.

[odeon]

I do think the world is losing interest. It's how people are. And no, I do not have any faith in the media. They do not tone things down, they refocus.

[ProfessorFarnsworth]

5 more days until that will abruptly change, I can guarantee it.

[odeon]

I'll watch the headlines.

['andersom']

I do think the world is losing interest. It's how people are. And no, I do not have any faith in the media. They do not tone things down, they refocus.

They want to bring something new, to ensure sales.

At the moment it looks like all parties are making plans and thinking. Not much to tell about that. And background big articles are not the thing, when it is not a Saturday newspaper.

Wonder if the Ukraine will become part, politically, of the European Union soon.

[RageBeoulve]

I do think the world is losing interest. It's how people are. And no, I do not have any faith in the media. They do not tone things down, they refocus.

Well I mean, what normal person is interested in war? That's not a natural part of the human condition at all, its taught nonsense.

[RageBeoulve]

You do know that including half a dozen images of Obama and Putin won't magically build the argument that is missing in your text for you, right?

You do know that i'm merely making fun of a potentially bad situation that if occurs, I will neither support or participate in, right?

You could have fooled me.

You probably think I am an American ideologue, which I can't blame you for because how my country and it's population must look from outside the empire.

So: Just take my word for it, or don't. 

[ZEGH8578]

Don't guarantee things, professor, especially not things of the future.
This isn't 1938.
We have measures in place, that did not exist in 1938. Putin is not Hitler. Ukraine is not Austria.

Just because observers and analysts have drawn these paralels, that is all they are, just paralels. It doesn't mean Putin is sitting around seeking to replicate Hitler step by step, "First we take Crimea, then we take Berlin >:0"

Maybe you weren't talking about these comparisons in particular, and refering to the fact that Ukraine has refused legitimacy to the upcoming referendum, and that annexation would signify a hostile Russian action - but then again, what's the difference between then and now? If Ukraine plans to actually _attack Russia_, why wait untill a date that everyone can guess? They would basically be walking into a meat grinder.
I'm not gonna guess what's gonna happen, cus I don't know. Least of all am I gonna try to guarantee what happens

[ProfessorFarnsworth]

The only measure in place is the nuclear deterrence. That only averts a sudden rash over-the-top action.

The problem with just taking Crimea is the fact that Ukraine can isolate its northern border, cutting it off and force only sea trades (which can be hampered too if the Ukrainian navy tries anything by sea). Russia may then be forced to claim a small portion of Eastern Ukraine to form a clear land route to avert such attempts of isolation, and serve as a buffer zone to protect Crimea from a direct land assault. So I'm speculating the Ukraine will attempt a more passive-aggressive approach to punish Crimea by attempting to isolate it from the mainland entirely. That means if any power, water, or other infrastructure that provides for any part of Crimea is from the mainland, it could be cut off posing a serious problem.

Also the implications are more complex than just the land dispute. There's an economic factor too. Any attempts to sanction Russia will destabilize regional economies as it likely then turn into an economic war. Worse case, Russia seizes all western assets in their country as its own, dumps the USD as its reserve currency and cashes in on the US debt they've purchased.

The west cannot make any move against Russia without triggering a chain reaction of events that will escalate things. The west can't sit idly by because it'll demonstrate just how powerless the west is in stopping Russia, making other neighboring countries of Russia worried. So it all depends on whenever the west makes itself appear weak and allows Russia to just take Crimea with no strings attached (making their other allies nervous) or risk triggering a war either economically or militarily.

So that's why I'm anticipating someone bad is brewing here. The only thing I'm likely wrong on is the timing of it, it may take days, months or even years for the consequence of the annexation to be felt. Funnily enough it all comes down to what the west does in response to Russia after annexing Crimea.

[ProfessorFarnsworth]

I'm not gonna guess what's gonna happen, cus I don't know. Least of all am I gonna try to guarantee what happens

Where's the fun in that? Come on, surely you have some idea. Let's hear it.

[renaeden]

Hi Professor! Good to see you.

[odeon]

I do think the world is losing interest. It's how people are. And no, I do not have any faith in the media. They do not tone things down, they refocus.

Well I mean, what normal person is interested in war? That's not a natural part of the human condition at all, its taught nonsense.

But we are. We are interested in conflict, we are interested in drama.

[odeon]

You do know that including half a dozen images of Obama and Putin won't magically build the argument that is missing in your text for you, right?

You do know that i'm merely making fun of a potentially bad situation that if occurs, I will neither support or participate in, right?

You could have fooled me.

You probably think I am an American ideologue, which I can't blame you for because how my country and it's population must look from outside the empire.

So: Just take my word for it, or don't. 

Eh?

[odeon]

I'm not gonna guess what's gonna happen, cus I don't know. Least of all am I gonna try to guarantee what happens

Where's the fun in that? Come on, surely you have some idea. Let's hear it.

It will all end in tears.

[ProfessorFarnsworth]

Another motivator for Russia to annex Crimea and possibly go further:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-11-08/shell-to-drill-first-wells-in-10-billion-ukrainian-project.html

The country could hold as much as 42 trillion cubic feet (1.2 trillion cubic meters) of shale gas, the third largest reserve in Europe, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration estimate from 2011.