Taking all bets on Iran...

[ProfessorFarnsworth]

They don't need to start a war,  just threatening to do so drives up the price of oil hurts us more and they get more for what oil they can sell.  The trade restrictions don't do too much when countries not party to them buy the oil anyway

Unless it's enforced by a U.S military checkpoint that screens all Iranian flagged or registered ships. They have positioned ships in the Arabian sea so it's possible that could be an option.

[ZEGH8578]

iran hasnt threatened war. theyve stated a few wishes "we wish the grass was greener, kebabs were juicyer, and israel not to exist anymore", but they dont directly threaten war.
america threatens war, and israel threatens war.
we need to keep the facts straight... we create paradoxes as we go along

like the godawful iraq war
america: "iraq are a danger to the world!!!"
iraq: "huh?"
america: "THEYRE COMING FOR US!!!" *whilst coming for iraq*
iraq: "wait, what"
america: "THEY ARE ATTACTING US!!!" *attacks iraq*

and now iraq is in smithereens, and this is a true story and all, and nobody... really? nobody sees the weird paradox that happened here!?
people are STILL reacting as if "phew, thats what iraq gets for coming at us and attacking us"


im just seeing this scenario, again and again, and now ooonce more, and as always people just get riled up, irans sitting there doing nothing, and everyone's screaming "get out of the way! hes going nuts, shooting everybody, save yourseeelves!" cops bust the door down, iran's still sitting there doing nothing, cops screaming at it "drop the gun or we WILL fire! drop it! drop it nooow!!!" <---which of corse is the moment iran can do nothing, but get his face shot in

[ProfessorFarnsworth]

I agree, U.S/Israel are intentionally agitating a war situation and Iran's like, "Oh FFS, WTF is this shit? U MAD".

im just seeing this scenario, again and again, and now ooonce more, and as always people just get riled up, irans sitting there doing nothing, and everyone's screaming "get out of the way! hes going nuts, shooting everybody, save yourseeelves!" cops bust the door down, iran's still sitting there doing nothing, cops screaming at it "drop the gun or we WILL fire! drop it! drop it nooow!!!" <---which of corse is the moment iran can do nothing, but get his face shot in

But the Iranians are champions at defence though. They're more likely have the front door fortified and booby trapped and will blow away the invader upon trying to bust the door down.

Then they dawn their trollface.

I'm only "hoping" for a war because I feel the U.S and Israel are grossly underestimating Iran's defensive and possibly offensive capabilities. Also I wonder just how much technology and support have the Russians and Chinese given them to bolster this ability too. Besides it's inevitable so I guess I'm just accepting it now.

[ZEGH8578]

I agree, U.S/Israel are intentionally agitating a war situation and Iran's like, "Oh FFS, WTF is this shit? U MAD".

im just seeing this scenario, again and again, and now ooonce more, and as always people just get riled up, irans sitting there doing nothing, and everyone's screaming "get out of the way! hes going nuts, shooting everybody, save yourseeelves!" cops bust the door down, iran's still sitting there doing nothing, cops screaming at it "drop the gun or we WILL fire! drop it! drop it nooow!!!" <---which of corse is the moment iran can do nothing, but get his face shot in

But the Iranians are champions at defence though. They're more likely have the front door fortified and booby trapped and will blow away the invader upon trying to bust the door down.

Then they dawn their trollface.

I'm only hoping for a war because I feel the U.S and Israel are grossly underestimating Iran's defensive and possibly offensive capabilities. Also I wonder just how much technology and support have the Russians and Chinese given them to bolster this ability too.

wait what, iran deserves invasion cus they are too well defended?
that makes absolutely no sense whatsoever :S
if theyre well defended good for them, as for offense... not gonna happen. look... if YOU know that america has nuclear weapons, I know that america has nuclear weapons, and WIKIPEDIA knows israel has nuclear weapons...
trust me
iran knows this too.

if only bare, naked, common sense could prevail more in this world. iran is going to attack nobody, cus theyre gonna get destroyed back in return. and no, theyre not fine with self-destruction, they really arent. im not pointing at you now profesor, but people tell me shit like "yes theyre fine with being nuked, ITS THEIR CULTURE!!!" no, no, no its not.
heres proof: if attacking israel is a guaranteed self destruction, made "worth it" by the invasion of israel, then they woulda done it allready.

this whole preemptive aggression premise has that major flaw: preemptive means nobody has hurt you yet. no matter how you spin it, you will be the aggressor, the bad guy. "but he was thinking of maybe going to attack me! i swear!"

i really hope america+nato finds something better to do, soon, than contemplate who to attack next. war isnt a hobby. it should only be used in the greatest of necesity, not as a pastime activity...

oh and posessing of nukes is not a "greatest of necesity". or we'd all be warring india, pakistan, north korea ffs... china, france, britain... russia...

[ProfessorFarnsworth]

WTF? I wasn't suggest that. I'm only pointing that that should U.S/Israel attack, Iran will be very resilient with its defensive capabilities.

Of course the West will attack first. Iran's not that stupid, but they're not exactly going be anywhere near as vulnerable as Iraq was and will put up a hell of a fight.

TL;DR: Iran will become the 21st century version of Vietnam in terms of results at best case scenario.

[Calavera]

Let me guess ... ZEGH is a Ron Paul fan?

[ZEGH8578]

professor, then i misunderstood. and your right that if anybody strikes first, it will be western powers. im just pointing out that, like always, it will be over bogus reasons. iran is not a threat.

calavera, im not american

[ProfessorFarnsworth]

professor, then i misunderstood. and your right that if anybody strikes first, it will be western powers. im just pointing out that, like always, it will be over bogus reasons. iran is not a threat.

calavera, im not american

I'm aware of that too because Iran's history and nature alone suggests it rather be left alone and defend itself from foreign threats.

My other comment were sort of piss taking in a sense that, yeah, I hope you declare war on Iran, watch yourself get bogged down in a stalemate struggle with them and risk escalating it into a world war where no-one wins. Because this situation has world war written all over it.

Frankly, it actually does scare me.

It's funny, the propaganda is supposed to make me scared of Iran, but I'm more scared of U.S and Israel's actions actually.

[ZEGH8578]

My other comment were sort of piss taking in a sense that, yeah, I hope you declare war on Iran, watch yourself get bogged down in a stalemate struggle with them and risk escalating it into a world war where no-one wins. Because this situation has world war written all over it.

Frankly, it actually does scare me.

It's funny, the propaganda is supposed to make me scared of Iran, but I'm more scared of U.S and Israel's actions actually.

ah, a moment of aspie-sarcasm-block struck me there a war with iran would be very boggy indeed, and theyve got a big population, big manpower pool, and it would also be morale-hell for nato troops, and morale-heaven for the iranian ones.
look at the iran iraq war, iran just showered the iraqi with troops "takbiring" left and right.
and one thing we have learned (often again and again) is that superior technology ultimately works best as a propaganda tool, and down on ground level, your just as dead from roadside bombs, 70s soviet rpgs etc as you are from high-tech weapons. iran is way more technologically advanced, organized and all-in-all-powerfull than afghanistan could ever be, and afghanistan is completely wearing us out

and yes, the bolded out part is exactly my point.
A is pointing at B, accusing B of being violent
A then marches over, and kicks and hits B, still accusing B of being violent
A brushes off the dust, kicks B one more time, and goes "thats for being so violent"
A scares the shit out of me, B does not

its like w the anti-islam wave going on in europe
you have a muslim population on one side
and mostly violent skinhead hooligans on the other, screaming for everyone to watch out for the muslims.
(here too i know whats gonna happen, while not agreeing with it )

[Calavera]

professor, then i misunderstood. and your right that if anybody strikes first, it will be western powers. im just pointing out that, like always, it will be over bogus reasons. iran is not a threat.

Iran is a threat if it has nuclear weapons just as USA is a threat, Great Britain is a threat, and so on and so forth. But I'd rather the more civilized world take control rather than an ultimate Persian/Arab/Sharia nation led by Islam.

calavera, im not american

Never asked whether you were American or not. I know many Aussies here who are in love with Ron Paul. It gets really annoying.

[Calavera]

its like w the anti-islam wave going on in europe
you have a muslim population on one side
and mostly violent skinhead hooligans on the other, screaming for everyone to watch out for the muslims.
(here too i know whats gonna happen, while not agreeing with it )

Yeah, because Muslims are not mostly violent ...

[ProfessorFarnsworth]

professor, then i misunderstood. and your right that if anybody strikes first, it will be western powers. im just pointing out that, like always, it will be over bogus reasons. iran is not a threat.

Iran is a threat if it has nuclear weapons just as USA is a threat, Great Britain is a threat, and so on and so forth. But I'd rather the more civilized world take control rather than an ultimate Persian/Arab/Sharia nation led by Islam.

What about Pakistan though? That's always one step away from Taliban control with a currently corrupt government ruling it.

But I supposed by India having nuclear weapons also, they cancel each other out in sense of M.A.D.

But I doubt Iran would nuke Israel first, not unless it wants its allies like Russia and China to abandon them in alienation and contempt. Any nation that pre-empts a nuclear war would be almost unanimously condemned, as everyone knows what consequences such an act would entail. You have to bear in mind that radiological fallout of such an attack would likely affect Palestine and Lebanon too, containing some of Iran's allies like Hamas and Hezbollah respectively. They certainly wouldn't appreciate that either (despite the initial cheering), well, at least when their population starts dying slowly and their children develop horrendous deformities.

[Parts]

I agree with most of what you said but then again when to the leaders of a country really give two shits about the populace.  I feel they would not want to perform a first strike mainly out of worry about themselves as they would be certainly dead not that long after

[Calavera]

I'll always feel safer with America having nuclear weapons than with a country like Iran or Korea having nuclear weapons.

One reason why is because of the way America is ruled. It's not under the hand of just one leader. There's no dictatorship as it is in Iran.

[Calavera]

professor, then i misunderstood. and your right that if anybody strikes first, it will be western powers. im just pointing out that, like always, it will be over bogus reasons. iran is not a threat.

Iran is a threat if it has nuclear weapons just as USA is a threat, Great Britain is a threat, and so on and so forth. But I'd rather the more civilized world take control rather than an ultimate Persian/Arab/Sharia nation led by Islam.

What about Pakistan though? That's always one step away from Taliban control with a currently corrupt government ruling it.

But I supposed by India having nuclear weapons also, they cancel each other out in sense of M.A.D.

But I doubt Iran would nuke Israel first, not unless it wants its allies like Russia and China to abandon them in alienation and contempt. Any nation that pre-empts a nuclear war would be almost unanimously condemned, as everyone knows what consequences such an act would entail. You have to bear in mind that radiological fallout of such an attack would likely affect Palestine and Lebanon too, containing some of Iran's allies like Hamas and Hezbollah respectively. They certainly wouldn't appreciate that either (despite the initial cheering), well, at least when their population starts dying slowly and their children develop horrendous deformities.

America, on the whole, is not crazy enough to unleash their nuclear weapons anyway (unless they themselves have already been hit with those same weapons or something and it's too late to do much about it). And you'd basically need the whole nation and the world) to agree to it.

Ahmadinejad, and people like him, are both crazy and enough to let it happen with just enough provocation.